The probability that Greece will leave the euro in the next 18 months is now 50%, according to a report by the American corporation Citi, which until now, had put the probability of the Hellenic Republic's exit from the from monetary union at between 25% and 30%.
 
As stated in the report, Citi believes that the Greek government will achieve an orderly restructuring of its debt within the framework of current negotiations with private creditors on the involvement of the private sector and with the participation of the 'troika' and the ECB.

Along these lines, an agreement is also expected between the European Union (EU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) on a second rescue, which Greece needs to avoid a messy bankruptcy.

It also notes that to remain in the eurozone, the Greek government must show a minimum degree of compliance with structural and fiscal conditions of the bailout program, and suggests that, alternatively, it could temporarily cede authority over certain budgetary decisions to eurozone representatives or the European Union (EU).

In addition, Citi believes that the cost of Greece's departure to the rest of the euro zone would be "moderate", while it hopes the contagion fear after Greece's departure would be contained by policy actions where necessary. "In September, we viewed the likelihood and scale of exit fear contagion as much higher and the willingness of the euro area authorities to respond as lower," it adds.

In its opinion, the ability of politicians to contain the exit fear contagion is still "great", as is the likelihood of policy measures by the European Central Bank (ECB) and creditors of the eurozone to support the weak and vulnerable, but "compliant" creditors have increased over the last six months.

However, it warns that an "uncontained" exit fear contagion from the euro would have "grave implications" for the rest of the eurozone, the European Union and the world at large.