25 de Mayo, 09:28 am

The whole eurozone will go into recession in 2012, according to the World Bank

Toda la eurozona, en recesión en 2012/The whole eurozone will go into recession in 2012

The whole eurozone will go into recession in 2012, according to the World Bank

The institution has revised downwards its economic forecast for euro countries

The World Bank predicts that the eurozone economy will contract by three-tenths in 2012, compared to its previous growth forecast of 1.9% this year. They also say that the escalation of the debt crisis in the euro zone has spread to both developing and high-income countries and is generating ''significant headwinds''.
 
"Developing countries should prepare for greater risks of economic decline as the euro zone debt crisis and the fragile growths of several emerging economies are darkening the general outlook", warns the World Bank in the latest edition of the 'Global Economic Prospects' report.

The institution forecasts that the world economy will grow 2.5% this year and 3.1% in 2013, after a downward revision of its 2012 growth forecast for both developing and high-income countries. "The world economy has entered a very difficult phase characterized by significant downside risks and fragility" it says.

Specifically, the organization estimates that developing economies will grow 5.4% this year compared with the forecast of 6.2% in June 2011, and 6% in 2013, while high-income countries will grow by 1.4% in 2012, 1.3 points lower than its previous estimate, and 2% next year.

However, the World Bank warns that even achieving these much weaker rates of growth is "very uncertain". It also says that the slow growth in Europe complicates efforts to restore market confidence in the sustainability of the region's finances, and could exacerbate tensions.

In relation to Spain, the report notes that the new Popular Party government out of the November 20 elections has pledged to "considerably" speed up the structural and fiscal reforms started by the previous socialist government.

"The ripple effect of the crisis"

The report notes that while economic prospects of developing countries remain favourable, "the ripple effects of the crisis in high-income economies are being felt worldwide". "Developing countries must assess their vulnerabilities and prepare for more attacks, while there is time", said Justin Yifu Lin, Senior Vice President Bank's Development Economics.

The institution stresses that developing countries now have less fiscal and monetary space for remedial measures in comparison with 2008 and 2009.As a result, "their ability to respond" may be constrained if international financial dwindles and global conditions deteriorate sharply".

To prepare for that scenario, Hans Timmer, World Bank director of development prospects, argues that "developing countries should prefinance budget deficits, prioritise spending on social safety nets and infrastructure, and stress-tests domestic banking institutions."

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