In these "Outrageous Predictions," Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not intended as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets.
 
1. Shares of Apple plummet 50% from 2011 high

Going into 2012, the most innovative products of Apple , the iPhone and the iPad, will face several competitors such as Google , Amazon , Microsoft / Nokia and Samsung. Apple will not able to maintain its market share of 55 per cent (three times as much as the Android) and 66% for the IOS and the iPad.

2. The EU grants more bank holidays in 2012

The changes introduced in December by the EU Treaty is insufficient to solve EU funding needs, particularly those in Italy. As a result, the European crisis will return with a vengeance by mid-year. Consequently, the stock market finally caves in and drops by 25% short term, which forces politicians to grant European holidays and close European exchanges and banks for a week or more.

3. A yet unannounced candidate takes the White House

In 1992, Texas billionaire Ross Perot managed to take advantage of the economic recession and popular discontentment with U.S. politics and reap 18.9% of the popular vote. After three years of the Obama administration, there have been few changes, only widespread disillusionment with the entire U.S. political system and conditions for the emergence of a third party candidate have never been better. Someone with a strong programme for change throws their hat into the ring in early 2012 and takes the presidency in November, in one of the most decisive elections in U.S. history, with 38% of the vote.

4. Australia goes into recession

The effects of the impending slowdown of the Asian giant ripple through the Asia-Pacific region and push other countries into recession. Without a doubt, the most dependent country on the well-being of in China is Australia, with its heavy dependence on natural resources and mining. And as China's demand for these goods weakens, Australia is pushed into a recession, which is exacerbated as the housing sector finally experiences a crash -a half a decade later than in the rest of world.

5. Basel Agreement III and regulations force the nationalization of 50 European banks

In early 2012, pressure will increase on the European banking system as new capital requirements and regulations force banks to deleverage in a great hurry .This leads to the liquidation of financial assets due to the small number of buyers in the market. The total freezing of the European interbank market forces nervous savers to make bank-runs, as investors distrust deposit guarantees from insolvent sovereigns. More than 50 banks end up on government balance sheets and several well-known commercial banks cease to exist.

6. Sweden and Norway replace Switzerland as save havens

As we have seen in the case of Switzerland, becoming a safe haven in a world of devaluing central banks presents a number of risks to a country's economy. The capital markets of both countries are a little smaller than that of Switzerland, but the Swiss are dramatically devaluing their currency and investment managers are looking for new safe havens for capital. Flows into the two countries' government bonds on safe haven appeal becomes popular enough to drive ten year rates there to more than 100 basis points below the classic safe haven German bonds.

7. Swiss National Bank wins and catapults EURCHF to 1.50

Switzerland's persistence in fighting the appreciation of its currency continues to pay off in 2012. With Swiss fundamentals (especially those related to exports) continuing to suffer in 2012 from past CHF strength, the Swiss National Bank and government continue to prevent more collateral damage and introduce extensions to existing programmes and even negative interest rates to trigger sufficient capital flight from the traditional safe haven of Switzerland to engineer a move in EURCHF as high as 1.50 during the year.

8. USDCNY rises 10 per cent to 7.00

As marginal returns from the construction of million-inhabitant ghost towns diminish and exporters face increasingly tight margins due to the advancement of CNY, China is on the brink of "recession", meaning 5-6 per cent of GDP   .Chinese policymakers come to the rescue of exporters and allow the CNY to decline against the U.S. dollar lower, which is kept afloat thanks to its safe haven status amid slowing global growth and an on-going Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, sending the pair up to 7.00 for a 10% increase.  

9. The Baltic Dry Index rises 100 per cent

Falling oil prices in 2012 could cause a rise in the Baltic Dry Index as operating expenses go down. It is expected that Brazil and Australia will expand the iron ore supply, resulting in a greater fall in prices and therefore higher import demand from China to satisfy its insatiable industrial production. In combination with monetary easing this leads to a massive spike in demand for iron ore.

10. Wheat prices to double in 2012

The price of CBOT wheat will double during 2012 after having the worst performing crop in 2011. With 7 million people on the earth and money printing machines at full throttle, unfortunately, bad weather will return and make it difficult to produce agricultural products during the year. Wheat especially will rally strongly as speculative investors, who had built up one of the biggest short positions on record, will help drive back the price to its record high of 2008.